Greg Hunter ~ Real Estate Turnaround?

USA Watchdog | August 29 2012

There was some good news released yesterday by the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index.  Residential housing prices rose .5% year-over-year for the first time since June of 2010.  In a press release, David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee, said, “All 20 of the cities saw average home prices rise in June over May and all were by at least 1.0%. . . . We are aware that we are in the middle of a seasonal buying period, but the combined positive news coming from both monthly and annual rates of change in home prices bode well for the housing market.”  (Click here for the complete Case-Shiller press report and release.)  

Does a .5% increase (year-over-year) really “bode well for the housing market”?  It has been widely reported the Federal Reserve has spent trillions of dollars suppressing interest rates.  There’s been quantitative easing (money printing), “Operation Twist” and near 0% interest on a key Fed lending rate.  A 30-year mortgage is hovering at or near historic lows–around 3.5%.  This is all we got after all that?  According to the latest Case-Shiller report, “As of June 2012, average home prices across the United States for the 10-City and 20-City Composites are back to their summer 2003 levels.”  Home prices are back to where they were 10 years ago and this is good news?

The 0% Fed interest rate policy and suppression game may be great for home buyers, but it is a total rip-off for savers.  People trying to get a return on their hard earned money are being robbed of hundreds of billions of dollars a year because of artificially suppressed interest rates.  CD’s are paying a fraction of a percent for locking up money for years!

Bloomberg was also jumping on the “good news” housing band wagon yesterday.  “Finally, the housing market is forming a bottom,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop” with Betty Liu. “That should be welcome. It is not surprising because affordability is so attractive right now.”  (Click here for the complete Bloomberg story.)  I guess Mr. El-Erian is right when he says, “the housing market is forming a bottom.” But I think you have to add one caveat to the equation, and that is the housing market is forming a bottom as long as mortgage interest rates are artificially suppressed! 

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The Collapse of the Euro

Bob Adelmann | The New American | January 12 2012

One of the unintended consequences of the ongoing and accelerating crisis in the eurozone is that ordinary citizens are taking their money out of the banks and burying it. Lack of both confidence in the stability of the European economy and credible solutions to the crisis have led to the exit of currency from banks in Greece, Italy, and other European countries.

One Greek banker said that safe deposit boxes are in great demand: “There has been a big increase in rentals … about fivefold compared with last year. About 10 percent of the withdrawals we see are headed there. The most extreme case was a client who told me he was building a safe under his pool.” Retail bank deposits in that country are now at five-year lows, adding to the instability of banks whose balance sheets depend on those deposits staying put.

Italian citizens are moving their money out of the country into Switzerland while others are purchasing German bonds. Those purchasers have been so willing to pay for the privilege of owning safe German bonds that they have driven interest rates to less than zero.

Others are putting their paper into hard assets such as apartments in Berlin. Frederico Racca, a realtor in Berlin, reported, “Sales skyrocketed in the last two months due to fears of a possible default of Italy.” In November his agency sold 78 properties to Italians seeking safety. In the first week in December, it sold 50 more. Annalisa Fornara, a realtor specializing in such properties, related, “They are arriving en masse. What we are seeing has no comparisons with the last eight years. There is an entire portion of the market that is [being purchased by nervous] Italians.”

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France Shocked by S&P Downgrade Error

By Reuters | CNBC
November 11 2011

Standard & Poor’s mistakenly announced the downgrade of France’s top credit rating on Thursday, frightening investors already anxious over Europe’s worsening debt crisis.

The erroneous alert, which S&P said was sent to some of its subscribers, fed concerns that Europe’s debt problems had engulfed the region’s second-largest economy.

It contributed to the worst day for France’s government bonds since before the euro was launched in 1999.

In a statement issued nearly two hours after the fact, S&P said the message resulted from a technical error and not from any action it intended to take against France.

French policy makers and regulators reacted quickly, worried that their efforts to maintain the credibility of France’s finances were in jeopardy.

“We will not allow any negative message to pass” to the market, French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said on the sidelines of an economic conference in Lyon. “We have a strategy, a commitment in terms of deficit reduction.”

He called S&P’s error “quite shocking” and asked regulators to investigate its causes and consequences.

French financial markets regulator AMF opened a probe into the case right after that.

S&P Investigating Cause

S&P, which is already under fire from European policy makers over recent downgrades of government debt, has offered little explanation about the causes of the accident so far.

The ratings agency said it is investigating the cause of the erroneous message, which was automatically disseminated to some subscribers of its credit ratings website.

It was not clear how many clients saw the message.

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What’s your country’s TRUE rating? Here’s the answer …

by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.| Money & Markets
October 31, 2011

If you’re among those who think the central bankers and finance ministers of the world really have a clue about how to bail out bankrupt borrowers and end a debt crisis …

I urge you to take another look at what I wrote last week about the NINE MAJOR CRISES they’ve bungled in the past half century.

Each and every bailout plan bombed or, worse, set the stage for the next, even bigger debt crisis.

That’s why today’s sovereign debt disaster is threatening to crush the finances of the biggest governments in the West … sabotage any semblance of recovery … and trash the livelihood of hundreds of millions of people.

Plus, if you believe Europe’s new “master plan,” proposed last Wednesday, might have a chance of finally ending this granddaddy of debt crises …

I suggest you read what Mike Larson has just written about the THREE CRITICAL DISCONNECTS between hope and reality that could kill the rescues — not just in Europe, but also in the U.S.

Better yet, for a fair and objective assessment of how serious this crisis truly is, just look at our own sovereign debt ratings.

An historic, world-changing event is about to permanently alter your life!

This monumental event will plunge vast numbers of families into the nightmare of poverty, homelessness and hunger. In the worst case scenario, you will see soaring crime, the confiscation of property, the suspension of civil rights, and even martial law enforcement by the U.S. military …

Unlike Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch, we accept no compensation whatsoever from debt issuers for issuing a rating.

No, the credit rating agencies don’t get paid for their ratings on sovereign nations. But they do get paid big fees by thousands of commercial banks, investment banks, insurers, and other companies that depend on the governments for bailouts, subsidies, guarantees, and all kinds of contacts.

So when S&P, Moody’s, and Fitch downgrade the credit of entire countries, they also jeopardize the ratings — and the business — of their best-paying corporate customers domiciled in those countries.

This fundamental conflict of interest helps explain …

  • Why S&P continues to give the U.S. government a stellar rating despite the most tragic deterioration in U.S. government finances of all time …
  • Why Moody’s and Fitch continue to give it the highest possible grade, and …
  • Why all three did not begin to seriously downgrade sinking European countries until long after their sovereign debt crises exploded onto the front pages.

This is also why we decided to take a series of actions to alert you to the impending disaster:

On May 10, 2010 — over 17 months ago — we challenged the major credit rating agencies to downgrade U.S. debt. (See “Weiss Ratings Challenges S&P, Moody’s and Fitch to Downgrade Long-Term U.S. Debt: Downgrade would help protect investors and prod Washington to fix its finances.”)

We published an open letter to the credit rating agencies, repeating the challenge and documenting FOUR CASE STUDIES of their failures to warn investors of obvious financial disasters.

On April 28 of this year, we became the first rating agency to issue a low grade on U.S. debt, rating it a C, or the approximate equivalent of BBB by S&P. Forbes later confirmed that Weiss Ratings beat S&P and all other rating agencies in alerting the public to the dangers. (See our press release here.)

On July 15, we downgraded U.S. government debt from C to C-, reflecting a continued deterioration in the U.S. government’s debt burdens, international accounts, and economic health. (See “Weiss Ratings Downgrades United States Debt to C-.”)

And just last month, we reaffirmed the C- rating for the U.S., while downgrading the debt of six European countries. (See press release.)

Here are the independent Weiss Sovereign Debt Ratings (last column) of the major countries in the news, compared to those of the three conflicted credit agencies:

Sovereign Debt Ratings Compared
S&P
Moody’s
Fitch
Weiss
Belgium
AA+
Aa1
AA+
C-
France
AAA
Aaa
AAA
C
Germany
AAA
Aaa
AAA
C+
Greece
CC
Ca
CCC
E
Ireland
BBB+
Ba1
BBB+
D-
Italy
A
A2
A+
C-
Portugal
BBB-
Ba2
BBB-
D+
Spain
AA-
Aa2
AA-
D+
U.S.
AA+
Aaa
AAA
C

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US Rating Likely to Be Downgraded Again: Merrill

Reuters | October 24 2011

The United States will likely suffer the loss of its triple-A credit rating from another major rating agency by the end of this year due to concerns over the deficit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch forecasts.

The trigger would be a likely failure by Congress to agree on a credible long-term plan to cut the U.S. deficit, the bank said in a research note published on Friday.

A second downgrade — either from Moody’s or Fitch — would follow Standard & Poor’s downgrade in August on concerns about the government’s budget deficit and rising debt burden.

A second loss of the country’s top credit rating would be an additional blow to the sluggish U.S. economy, Merrill said.

“The credit rating agencies have strongly suggested that further rating cuts are likely if Congress does not come up with a credible long-run plan” to cut the deficit, Merrill’s North American economist, Ethan Harris, wrote in the report.

“Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December when the super committee crashes,” he added.

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