US May See First Population Decline Decades Early
Brian Freeman – The United States could record its first population decline in history as soon as this year, decades earlier than previously projected, as President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown sharply reduces net migration, according to new estimates from government agencies and independent researchers, Bloomberg reported on Monday.
For decades, population growth in the U.S. has been driven by immigration offsetting lower birth rates and rising deaths tied to an aging population.
But experts across the political spectrum now say Trump’s second-term immigration policies are accelerating a turning point long expected to arrive later in the century.
In its most recent long-term forecast, released in 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau projected the national population would begin shrinking in 2081.
New data and updated projections suggest that timeline may have moved dramatically forward.
The Census Bureau reported this week that in the year ending July 1, 2025, the U.S. population grew by just 0.5%, or 1.8 million people, the slowest growth rate since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The primary reason was a sharp drop in net migration, which fell to 1.3 million from 2.7 million the year before.
During that same period, the Census found there were 519,000 more births than deaths — a surplus that is steadily narrowing.
The Congressional Budget Office has projected that by approximately 2030, deaths will outnumber births, leaving immigration as the sole source of population growth.
Census officials now expect net migration to fall further, to about 316,000 in the year ending July 2026, with the U.S. “trending toward negative net migration.”
Independent researchers say the situation may already be more significant. A recent analysis by economists at the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution estimates that net migration may have turned negative in 2025, with the immigrant population declining by anywhere from 10,000 to 295,000 people.
Looking ahead to this year, the researchers project net immigration could range from a gain of 185,000 to a loss of as many as 925,000 — a forecast made before additional legal immigration restrictions were announced this year.
If net migration falls far enough to outweigh the shrinking surplus of births over deaths, the overall U.S. population would decline. At the low end of the researchers’ estimate, the population would fall by more than 400,000 people this year.
“We could be at around zero or negative on population,” said Tara Watson, director of the Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity and a co-author of the analysis.
Since the first U.S. census in 1790, a nationwide population decline has never been recorded, according to demographers.
The only possible exception took place in 1918, when the Spanish flu pandemic and the overseas deployment of millions of U.S. troops may have temporarily reduced the domestic population.
Economists said that the effects of lower immigration and potential population decline may take years to fully materialize, gradually weighing on labor force growth, economic expansion, and public finances rather than causing immediate disruption.
The Trump administration argues that reduced immigration will benefit native-born workers and ease pressure on housing and public services.
The White House has pointed to workforce training programs and expanded access to temporary worker visas as ways to offset labor shortages.
SF Source Newsmax Feb 2026