Trump Defied The Experts, Tariffs Cut Prices & Inflation Never Came

amuse – The debate over tariffs is usually conducted at a distance from evidence. Economists predict, journalists amplify, and political actors weaponize the predictions. Then the economy moves on, and the predictions quietly disappear. President Trump’s 2025 tariffs offer a clean case study of this familiar pattern. The warnings were loud, confident, and nearly unanimous. Tariffs would be inflationary. Prices would rise. Consumers would pay. The data now show that this consensus was wrong.

Begin with the claim itself. A tariff is a tax on imports. Taxes raise prices. Therefore, tariffs raise inflation. The inference looks straightforward, even irresistible. But it skips crucial steps. Inflation is not the same thing as a price increase in a subset of goods. Inflation is a sustained, economy‑wide rise in the general price level. Moving from tariffs to inflation requires assumptions about pass‑through, scope, timing, substitution, demand, and monetary response. Those assumptions did not hold in 2025. Continue reading →