Ten years ago, the legendary American mathematician Edward Lorenz paid a visit to the University of Maryland’s Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Department.
As retold by Professor Christopher Danforth of the University of Vermont—
At some point during his stay, [Lorenz] penned the following on a piece of paper: “Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.”
Chaos, of course, is the field of mathematics that deals with finding order in what otherwise may appear to be random. Stock market prices. Weather patterns. Even warfare and politics.
Lorenz was a pioneer in this area, famously coining the term ‘Butterfly effect’. This observation suggests that a tiny butterfly flapping its wings may cause minuscule changes in the air which ultimately lead to a major storm system.
In other words, nothing is consequence-free. Everything affects everything else. And Lorenz’s definition of chaos perfectly sums up where the world is right now.
We can see that nearly every Western nation is broke. Many central banks are borderline insolvent. Most Western banking systems are poorly capitalized and highly illiquid.
This approximate present will not approximately determine the future. Nothing is going to happen tomorrow. There will likely be no giant collapse this afternoon.
But as Lorenz suggests, there will come a time when these conditions have a major impact on what happens down the road. What happens now absolutely will determine the future.
Over the last few years, words like ‘unsustainable’ and ‘unprecedented’ have been used copiously when referring to government debt levels and monetary policy.
“The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
Ever since Edward Snowden burst onto the worldwide stage in June 2013, I’ve been wondering how he fits into the fabric of this ongoing Fourth Turning. This period of Crisis that arrives like clockwork, 60 to 70 years after the end of the previous Fourth Turning (Civil War – 66 years after American Revolution, Great Depression/World War II – 64 years after Civil War, Global Financial Crisis – 62 years after World War II), arrived in September 2008 with the Federal Reserve created collapse of the global financial system. We are now five and a half years into this Fourth Turning, with its climax not likely until the late-2020’s. At this point in previous Fourth Turnings a regeneracy had unified sides in their cause and a grey champion or champions (Ben Franklin/Samuel Adams, Lincoln/Davis, FDR) had stepped forward to lead. Thus far, no one from the Prophet generation has been able to unify the nation and create a sense of common civic purpose. Societal trust continues to implode, as faith in political, financial, corporate, and religious institutions spirals downward. There is no sign of a unifying regeneracy on the horizon.