Colonel W. Patrick Lang – No, we are not referring to James Comey’s dismissal (though this too, does reflect a change of mode). Perhaps we should have paid closer attention to Roger Stone, a long-time friend of the President, and his erstwhile campaign manager, who insists, and insists trenchantly, that Trump is his ‘own man’. Those who think Trump can be manipulated are mistaken, Stone says. They misread the terrain, and subsequently will find that they are mistaken. No, by ‘change of gear’, we refer rather, to the Astana-Syria talks.
In all the dust kicked up in Washington over Comey, Astana has passed largely unnoticed. But there (Astana), the ‘gear change’ is substantive and merits close attention.
In gist, Trump is willing to let Astana unfold, and to see whether it may lead to a strategic change in the Syrian situation. Two things emerge from this: Firstly, Russia and Iran are being tested by Trump. Ideological prejudices are being suspended for the moment, and both countries will be judged by their actions. (I think both states will stand content with this situation).
The second shift of mode, concerns certain (but not all) of Trump’s military advisers. The latter have been quite prominent in the formulation of US foreign policy until now.
And in the recent talks in Astana, unlike before, the US had a senior diplomat attend and observe the talks – an Assistant Secretary of State. In brief, the baton has passed from the Generals Mattis and McMaster, from the sphere of military intervention primarily, to the primacy of negotiations.