Joseph P Farrell – Last Thursday in my News and Views from the Nefarium I talked about the Onsen summit in Japan between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin. As I put it then, one should not expect many breakthroughs from the summit on the issue of the Kuril islands, those northern islands seized from Japan by the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two.

Neither nation has, since then, been willing to renounce those claims. Instead, I suggested that one has to look forward to a long process of negotiations on a whole host of issues. But the central geopolitical issue is, Russia needs Japanese financing and expertise to develop Siberian infrastructure, and as a counter-balance to growing Chinese influence in the region, and Japan needs a close, and secure, supply of energy that cannot be interdicted by China.

This geopolitical convergence, I’ve been arguing, is a much stronger gravitational pull than anything else keeping the two Asia powerhouses apart, including American pressure on Japan, and including the stormy relationships between the two countries that began in the Russo-Japanese war, when Japanese land and naval forces easily and handily defeated the Tsar, and seized several key Russian outposts in the far East, including Port Arthur.

Back then, both powers sought a “neutral negotiating power” to conclude a peace, which was Teddy Roosevelt’s USA. Notably, neither power is now paying all that much attention to the USA, although Mr. Abe’s government carefully avoided giving the impression that Mr. Putin’s visit was a state visit, for he did not meet with Emperor Akihito.

However, I think we can safely chalk up my prediction of “no breakthroughs” at the summit in the “big miss” column. Here’s why: Continue reading →