Bethany Blankley – According to the Primary Model, which has projected 5 out of 5 correct forecasts of election outcomes the Certainty of Donald Trump Becoming America’s next president is 52 percent. The Primary Model also predicts the November election to favor the Republican Party.
Helmut Norpoth writes for the PrimaryModel.com that the likelihood of Trump winning is 87 percent based on a “statistical model that relies on presidential primaries [going back to 1912] and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.”
How a candidate fares in the early primaries is key to determining electoral victory for that election. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, but Clinton and Sanders split the Democratic primaries in the same states.