Bethany Blankley – According to the Primary Model, which has projected 5 out of 5 correct forecasts of election outcomes the Certainty of Donald Trump Becoming America’s next president is 52 percent. The Primary Model also predicts the November election to favor the Republican Party.
Helmut Norpoth writes for the PrimaryModel.com that the likelihood of Trump winning is 87 percent based on a “statistical model that relies on presidential primaries [going back to 1912] and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.”
How a candidate fares in the early primaries is key to determining electoral victory for that election. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, but Clinton and Sanders split the Democratic primaries in the same states.
If paired with Hillary Clinton, the Republican primary winner, Donald Trump, “is predicted to defeat Hillary Clinton by 52.5% to 47.5% of the two-party vote.” If paired with Sanders, Trump would win by 57.7% to 42.3%.
PrimaryModel.com states:
For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996. In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.
As a rule, the candidate with the stronger primary performance wins against the candidate with the weaker primary performance. For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.
The model also determined that if Trump was not the candidate, the other likely nominees Ted Cruz 97% and Marco Rubio 77% would both lose to Hillary Clinton.
The certainty of Hillary Clinton defeating Rubio is 86 percent. Clinton would get 52.4% and Rubio 47.6% of the two party vote. The PrimaryModel indicates that Cruz “and any other candidate (except Trump) would fare the same way against Clinton.”
Read More @ Constitution.com
Hat tip, Kevin!
SF Source SGT Report August 2016
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This is garbage. This election is unlike any other that you’ve studied and Trump is unlike any other candidate, either. He has a 67% disapproval rating. Check the disapproval ratings of the candidates you predicted to win and you’ll see they were all below 50%.
Trump has NEVER had a statistically significant lead over Clinton across 140 polls going back to May 2015. Trump still cannot top 44% of the projected vote and the average difference across those 140 polls is 7 percent which is more than twice the average margin of error of 3%
NOT garbage. Read what TYPE of poll it is before offering such UNINFORMED commentary. g
I’d like to learn more
Thank you Bethany. These are not polls like the manufactured, manipulated polls being done by the Mainstream Media. These are polls based on the TOTAL NUMBER of individuals who were willing to stand in line to vote for a candidate in the primaries.
Hillary Clinton numbers claim she had 16,847,08 vote for her. Just look at the Convention when she made her speech to know that those numbers are as RIGGED as her entire campaign. Bernie Sanders likely won WAY MORE than 13,168,222 assigned to him. Trump had 14,010,177 cast for him.
LongRoom: At Last, an Unbiased Poll : https://youtu.be/5pXLGdVlxqk
Trump Tromps Clinton in Social Media Support: https://youtu.be/5pXLGdVlxqk